Gilead’s strong infectious diseases portfolio is forecast to peak in 2017.
By Armando Uribe, Analytics Analyst
8 June 2016
Datamonitor Healthcare forecasts that Gilead’s infectious disease portfolio will peak at $32.7bn in 2017 and will decline at a compound annual growth rate of -4.5%. This decline is attributed to a shrinking hepatitis C virus (HCV) market space (due to patients being cured and exiting the treatment cycle), price competition, and generic erosion of Gilead’s human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) portfolio.
Sales from Gilead’s infectious disease drugs will continue to dominate the company’s revenues between 2015 and 2025. Harvoni propelled Gilead’s excellent performance in 2015, generating $13.9bn worldwide revenues and making up 45% of the total portfolio sales. Datamonitor Healthcare forecasts that Harvoni global peak sales were generated in 2015 and will see revenues severely decline from the launch of new Gilead fixed-dose combination (FDC) products for HCV, sofosbuvir/velpatasvir and sofosbuvir/velpatasvir/GS-9857. The prospective new product launches for HCV will allow Gilead to maintain its leadership in this market space.
In the HIV market, Gilead has recently received approval of three new emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) based therapies: Genvoya (elvitegravir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide fumarate), Descovy (emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide) and Odefsey (emtricitabine/rilpivirine/tenofovir alafenamide). These three FDC products are the next generation single-tablet regimen versions of Stribild, Truvada, and Complera developed to replace tenofovir disoproxil fumarate. These three products are expected to peak in sales during 2022, generating $8.4bn before generics begin to enter the market.
Gilead’s therapy area dynamics, 2015–25Datamonitor Healthcare’s company analysis on Gilead explores global corporate strategy, marketed portfolio, pipeline potential, and financial performance over 2015–25.
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