Pneumococcal Vaccine: Forecast.
By Kayla Saadeh, Analyst
5 April 2016
V114 will likely rapidly replace Prevnar 13 in elderly populations, starting in 2020
In the event that serotype shift occurs, as was seen after the introduction of Prevnar 7 (7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine; Pfizer) in 2000, V114 (15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine; Merck & Co) will likely replace Prevnar 13 (13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine; Pfizer) in elderly populations due to its broader coverage and diversity in serotypes following positive results in Phase II studies.
V114 contains two additional serotypes not included in Prevnar 13, as well as the 13 strains already included in Prevnar 13. In Phase II trials in adults aged over 50 years, V114 was able to meet non-inferiority criteria for all 13 serotypes it has in common with Prevnar 13, and showed superior immunogenicity for the two serotypes not included in Prevnar 13 (22F and 33F).
Phase II trials are being conducted for V114 in a wide range of risk groups, including infants, adults aged over 50 years, and adults over 65 years, which positions the vaccine for expansive coverage once each indication is approved.
Given Prevnar 13’s dominance of all risk groups on the market for pneumococcal vaccination, V114 is likely to capitalize on its rival’s success and rapidly achieve blockbuster sales if it demonstrates at least non-inferior immunogenicity in Phase III studies.
Datamonitor Healthcare believes that V114 will rapidly replace Prevnar 13 following its approval in 2020, with full conversion expected by 2022.
Pneumococcal vaccine sales ($m) by brand, 2016-2025
Source: Datamonitor Healthcare Pneumococcal Vaccine Forecast, April 2016
Datamonitor Healthcare’s Pneumococcal Vaccine: Forecast provides estimates of total sales and vaccinated patients, split by risk group and brand, as well as vaccination coverage rates, pricing, dosing, and future event assumptions.
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