Renal cell cancer market to rapidly decline from 2019.
Market value to peak at $2.7bn before decreasing to $1.6bn in 2022
Independent analysis firm Datamonitor Healthcare has revealed that the renal cell cancer market is to peak at a value of $2.7bn in 2019, before significantly declining to $1.6bn within 3 years.
The decrease has been attributed to the patent expiry of key marketed brands. These include Afinitor, Avastin, Inlyta, Nexavar, Sutent, Torisel and Votrient, the sales of which are forecast to peak at $2.4bn in 2018, before decreasing to $705m in 2022 across the US, Japan and five major EU markets*. Sales of pipeline drugs will not be able to compensate for this loss in value over the forecast period.
Dr Áine Slowey, analyst at Datamonitor Healthcare said: “We expect the uptake of pipeline drugs to be hindered by economic constraints in cost-conservative markets and tough competition from established drugs.
“Sales of new approvals will therefore fail to outweigh the loss of sales due to generic erosion of key brands following patent expiry, resulting in a significant decrease in the total value of the renal cell cancer market.”
The high incidence of RCC in the US will ensure that this market remains the most lucrative over the forecast period. However, the aggressive uptake of generics in the US means that this market is the most affected by the patent expiry of key brands.
The uptake of generics is lower in Europe, so the sales erosion experienced due to the patent expiry of key brands is forecast to be lower in the EU than in the US. However, increasing pressure from governments to cut healthcare expenditure will drive providers to prescribe cheaper alternatives of branded drugs when they become available.
Additional forecasts, opinion and research from Datamonitor Healthcare is available at www.datamonitorhealthcare.com
*Five major EU markets = France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK
Media Contact: Lucy Giles @ MC2 | 0161 236 1352 | LucyG@mcmc.co.uk
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