V114 could replace Prevnar 13 as the recommended vaccine for the elderly because of its broader serotype coverage.
By Michael Haydock, Lead Analyst
4 May 2016
I am the Lead Analyst of the immunology and inflammation and infectious diseases and vaccines teams at Datamonitor Healt...
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If serotype shift occurs, as was observed after the introduction of Prevnar 7 (7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine; Pfizer), Datamonitor Healthcare believes that V114 (15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine; Merck & Co) will replace Prevnar 13 as the recommended primary immunization dose for the elderly in the US. In Phase II trials in adults aged over 50 years, V114 has already been able to meet non-inferiority criteria for all 13 serotypes it has in common with Prevnar 13, and was shown to be superior in immunogenicity for the two serotypes that Prevnar 13 lacks (22F and 33F). It is estimated that the 22F and 33F serotypes account for approximately 10% of cases of invasive pneumococcal disease, and so if priced comparably to Prevnar 13, V114’s broader serotype coverage could position it as the preferred vaccine for older adults. However, based on Phase II data which showed that V114 failed to meet non-inferiority criteria for serotypes 6A, 6B, and 19A when compared to Prevnar 13 in infants, Prevnar 13 is likely to retain its current dominance of the pediatric segment. This segment represents the most lucrative portion of the pneumococcal vaccine market, and so V114 must demonstrate stronger data in future Phase III studies in order to usurp Prevnar 13’s dominant position.
V114 US sales for pneumococcal vaccination ($m), 2020–25
|Source: Datamonitor Healthcare’s pneumococcal vaccines forecast, May 2016|
Datamonitor Healthcare’s Pneumococcal Vaccines: Forecast also explores the impact of recent changes to vaccination recommendations and anticipated increases in vaccination coverage rates on the market value during 2016−25.
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