With over 50 million total prevalent cases estimated across the analyzed markets in 2015 and considerable growth forecasted, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis poses a major public health concern.
By Amy Brenner, Epidemiologist
28 July 2016
I joined Datamonitor Healthcare as an Epidemiologist in 2015 after completing an MSc in Epidemiology from the London Sch...
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Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) comprises a spectrum of hepatic conditions closely associated with metabolic syndrome, including non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and non-alcoholic fatty liver (NAFL) or hepatic steatosis. Datamonitor Healthcare estimates that in 2015, there were 50.6 million total prevalent cases of NASH across the US, Japan, and five major EU markets (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK). When combined with an estimated 139.1 million total prevalent cases of NAFL, this gives 189.6 million total prevalent cases of NAFLD across the analyzed markets in 2015. Of all total prevalent NASH cases, 18.1% (9.2 million cases) were estimated to have advanced fibrosis (stage 3 and 4 fibrosis combined), and 4.3% (2.2 million cases) were estimated to have cirrhosis (stage 4 fibrosis).
By 2035, Datamonitor Healthcare forecasts that the number of total prevalent cases of NASH in the analyzed markets will increase by 13.6% to 57.4 million. This overall increasing trend is driven by population growth and aging. Growth in the total prevalent NASH population is expected in all markets except Japan, where the number of total prevalent cases of NASH is predicted to decline over the forecast period due to a reduction in population size. Changes in the frequency of risk factors such as obesity and diabetes, as well as improvements in diagnosis and treatment options, will drive trends in the NASH prevalence in coming years.
To the best of their knowledge, Datamonitor Healthcare epidemiologists identified the only prospective study to define NASH prevalence in an asymptomatic, adult population and use liver biopsy (the gold standard) for diagnosis (Williams et al., 2011). Furthermore, the selected study was conducted relatively recently (2007–10) and baseline characteristics demonstrated that the sample was representative of the general population, providing the most robust estimate of NASH prevalence to date. The use of this data source, combined with country-specific data on NAFLD prevalence, enhanced the reliability and accuracy of the NASH prevalence forecast.
Datamonitor Healthcare’s Epidemiology: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease module provides a detailed epidemiological analysis of the total prevalent populations of NAFLD, NASH, and NAFL across the US, Japan, and five major EU markets. This includes 20-year total prevalence forecasts for each indication (2015–35), age and gender segmentations, and an analysis of NASH fibrosis severity, as well as an interactive epidemiology datapack that incorporates diagnosis and drug treatment rates from Datamonitor Healthcare’s proprietary NAFLD survey.
Williams CD, Stengel J, Asike MI, Torres DM, Shaw J, Contreras M, Landt CL, Harrison SA (2011) Prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis among a largely middle-aged population utilizing ultrasound and liver biopsy: A prospective study. Gastroenterology, 140(1), 124–131 <DOI>10.1053/j.gastro.2010.09.038</DOI>.
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